By Steven E. Zipperstein, Distinguished Senior Scholar, UCLA Center for Middle East Development
Introduction
Donald Trump’s victory in the 5 November 2024 U.S. presidential election portends a shift in American policy toward the Middle East, Israel and international law. Generally speaking and based on Trump’s approach during his first term in office and the personnel announcements he has already made, we can expect strong U.S. support for Israel, possible confrontation with Iran, expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, and zero tolerance for the International Criminal Court’s consideration of arrest warrants for Israeli nationals.
Team Trump’s Support for Israel
Trump has announced his nominations of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as UN Ambassador, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as U.S. Ambassador to Israel.
While President Biden expressed strong support for Israel in the days immediately following the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks, that support waned as the war continued. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, UN Ambassador Linda Thomas Greenfield, and Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew receded to supporting Israel’s right to defend itself, but emphasizing “how it does so matters.” Vice President Kamala Harris sounded that same theme during her failed presidential campaign, even appearing to concur with an audience member at one of her rallies who yelled that Israel was committing “genocide” in Gaza.
We can expect a much different approach from Team Trump, as all four of his top appointees are staunch supporters of Israel.
Senator Rubio has repeatedly supported Israel’s defensive wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and he has accused the Biden Administration of hampering Israel’s ability to defend itself by catering to what he described as the Democratic Party’s “anti-Israel, antisemitic base.”
Congressman Waltz likewise has expressed strong support for Israel. Waltz, a former US Army Green Beret, recently expressed gratitude to Israel for killing top Hezbollah terrorist Fuad Shukr, one of the lead perpetrators of the 1983 truck bombing that killed 241 U.S. Marine Corps personnel asleep in their barracks in Beirut. Waltz wrote on Instagram, “For the families and victims of the 1983 Beirut bombing, THANK YOU Israel.”
Congresswoman Stefanik gained fame earlier this year with her devastating questioning of the Presidents of Harvard University, the University of Pennsylvania, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology regarding their failures to stem antisemitism on their campuses. Stefanik has a solid record of support for Israel and has been a frequent critic of the UN and its various agencies, especially UNRWA. On 4 November 2024 she said, “we must permanently cut off funding to UNRWA which instills antisemitic hate in Palestinians, houses weapons for terrorists, and steals the aid they are supposed to be distributing.”
Former Governor Huckabee, an evangelical Christian Zionist, has long been a proud supporter of Israel. Huckabee opposes Palestinian statehood in Judea and Samaria, and he once expressed interest in buying a home in an Israeli West Bank community. At the same time, however, he strongly favors expanding the Abraham Accords, saying recently, “I want to be a part of making sure that the Abraham Accords . . . continue to grow, bring more people into those agreements and create a more stable, more peaceful climate in the Middle East.”
Confrontation with Iran?
During his first term in office, Trump revoked U.S. participation in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, citing Iran’s support for terrorism and its stated desire to destroy Israel. Biden sought to revive the deal, but his efforts faltered when his top negotiator, Rob Malley, was sidelined on suspicion of mishandling classified information. In the meantime, Iran has been accused of plotting to assassinate Trump last summer.
We should, therefore, expect a harsher approach to Iran and its proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza in the incoming Trump Administration. At the same time, however, we must remember that Trump did not retaliate against Iran for the Houthi drone attack against the Saudi oil refinery complex in September 2019. Nor did Trump retaliate against Iran following the Iranian ballistic missile attack on a US military base in Iraq after the US assassination of IRGC head Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. Moreover, it has been reported that Elon Musk met with the Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations several days after the November 2024 election.
At this point, therefore, it is difficult to predict whether Trump will push for regime change in Iran, or some sort of modus vivendi with the Islamic Republic. At the very least, however, we can expect the incoming Trump Administration to renew harsh economic sanctions against Iran. We can also anticipate the Trump Administration will give Israel a far freer hand to deal with Iran’s ongoing nuclear weapons program.
Expanding the Abraham Accords
The June 2020 Abraham Accords represented a diplomatic triumph for the first Trump Administration. We should expect the new Trump Administration to undertake efforts to add Saudi Arabia to the Accords. The Saudis will want a steep price in return, including a defense pact with the US and access to the most sophisticated US weapons, along with Israeli concessions toward Palestinian statehood.
When the initial Abraham Accords were announced, the United Arab Emirates demanded that Israel forego plans to annex any portion of the West Bank. Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to pause any such plans for four years.
It remains to be seen whether or not the next Trump Administration and Israel will be willing to meet the Saudis’ demands, or whether the Saudis will realize it is in their long-term interest to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel.
The International Legal War Against Israel
During his first term Trump imposed sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC), in part due to former prosecutor Fatou Bensouda’s probes directed against Israeli nationals. Biden rescinded the sanctions when he took office, and only a few weeks later the Pre-Trial Chamber issued its controversial February 2021 ruling declaring Palestine had qualified as a “state” by virtue of its earlier and equally controversial accession to the court’s governing statute.
Trump’s recent election should result in the renewal of US sanctions against the ICC. The newly-elected Republican leader in the United States Senate has expressed his support for sanctioning the ICC for its ongoing focus on Israel, including Prosecutor Karim Khan’s 20 May 2024 request to the court for arrest warrants to be issued against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Israel is also facing lawfare at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), where South Africa has accused it of committing genocide in Gaza. Trump’s position regarding the ICJ is not known, but we should expect pro-Israel groups to bring this to the Administration’s attention as the case moves forward in the coming months.
President Biden appointed an anti-Israel law professor to the ICJ in 2023. The court’s governing statute does not permit Trump to replace her, nor would the United States’ veto power in the Security Council be available to block future anti-Israel appointees to the court, as a simple majority of both the General Assembly and Security Council is required to confirm nominees to the Court. That would leave sanctions against the ICJ as a possible tool, but it remains to be seen whether or not the Trump Administration will deal with the ICJ in the same manner as the ICC, especially because the United States historically has participated fully in ICJ proceedings, but has refused to join the ICC.
We can, however, expect the Trump Administration to use the U.S. veto to block all anti-Israel resolutions at the UN Security Council. The Biden Administration unfortunately refused to veto a March 2024 Security Council resolution demanding a four-week ceasefire in Gaza. The resolution called for the eventual release of the hostages in Gaza, but did not make the ceasefire contingent on the release of the hostages.
Conclusion
The incoming Trump Administration will provide strong political and military backing for Israel. At the same time, the Administration will push to expand the Abraham Accords, which could create tension between the Administration and Israel, depending on how hard the Saudis demand Palestinian statehood as a condition for normalizing relations with Israel.
Nevertheless, the election of Trump to a second term portends significant opportunities for Israel and the United States to defeat Iran and its proxies, to expand the Abraham Accords, and to weaken the international legal war against Israel.
